Abstract

This study examines the performance of 17 publicly traded companies with significant Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency exposure during two distinct phases of a market cycle from November 2024 to February 2026. Employing total return analysis, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and rolling 60-day correlation with Bitcoin across a pre-downturn bull phase and a subsequent severe correction termed the Bitcoin Polar Vortex, the analysis finds extreme dispersion in outcomes that cannot be explained by Bitcoin exposure alone. Total returns ranged from -81.7% (Gemini) to +368.1% (Iris Energy), compared to Bitcoin's own -7.0% over the full period. AI-oriented Bitcoin miners demonstrated robust resilience, with Hut 8 Mining and TeraWulf each posting positive returns during the Polar Vortex period even as Bitcoin declined 45.5%. In contrast, all three digital asset treasury companies incurred losses exceeding 33%, with maximum drawdowns ranging from 76.9% to 79.7% and recovery durations of 378 to 442 days, reflecting a structural collapse in the premium investors once assigned to corporate Bitcoin holdings. Gemini, which completed its Nasdaq IPO in September 2025 near the market peak, experienced an 82.1% maximum drawdown concentrated almost entirely within the Polar Vortex period, raising questions about timing, governance, and the sustainability of pure-play exchange business models at scale. These findings suggest that business model diversification, particularly toward artificial intelligence infrastructure, serves as a meaningful hedge against cryptocurrency price risk for companies operating in the digital asset sector.

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Mining companies, Digital asset treasury, Crypto exchanges, Market downturn, Equity performance, AI infrastructure, Portfolio risk, Drawdown analysis